The Suprising Frequency of Economics “Unthinkables”

Megan McArdle:

“I’ve only been writing about finance for seven years, and I’ve already watched a bunch of ‘unthinkable’ and ‘impossible’ actions, from Argentina’s devaluation and serial defaults, to my own government nationalizing GM. The unthinkable gets thunk surprisingly often.”

TODO: Dig up Rajan’s quote on 1,000 year events becoming 10 year events. Also, tail risk event frequencies.

The Atlantic, What a Greek Default Looks Like, Jun 3 2011, 9:19 AM ET


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